SCENARIOS: Healthcare bill carries risks for all sides

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senate passage on Thursday of landmark legislation to overhaul healthcare is packed with potential political risks and rewards.

With the next congressional elections set for November 2010, and President Barack Obama up for a second four-year term in 2012, here''s a look at some of them.

FINAL HURDLE

The fight on Capitol Hill isn''t over yet.

Before Obama can sign a measure into law, differences must be resolved between the Senate bill and one passed last month by the U.S. House of Representatives. Democratic leaders have voiced confidence that Obama will get a final bill next month.

"Democrats must produce a bill," said Ethan Siegal of the Washington Exchange, a private firm that tracks legislation and politics for institutional investors. "If they don''t, they''d be seen as unable to govern."

OBAMA

A victory on healthcare is critical for Obama, whose political standing and legislative agenda could hinge on its success. Obama''s approval rating has dropped to just under 50 percent from more than 60 percent earlier this year, due largely to the double-digit U.S. unemployment rate.

A signed bill would give Obama a boost -- provided it proves to be popular and, as advertised, brings down costs, ends what are seen as insurance industry abuses and provides coverage to millions of uninsured Americans.

Polls show public support for the legislation eroded to under 50 percent in recent months. Obama is certain to use his bully pulpit to try to raise those numbers.

REPUBLICANS

No Republicans voted for the Senate bill and just one voted for the House bill. So Republican lawmakers will likely rise or fall together on this issue, depending on the success or failure of the overhaul.