Scenarios: Afghan security, neighbors in focus at talks
This piece is part of a package of security and risk stories and factboxes before London meetings on Yemen and Afghanistan. The gathering on Thursday in London will also seek a common approach among Afghanistan''s neighbors on helping stabilize the country, where the conflict has dragged on for more than eight years and is increasingly unpopular with home electorates. A draft communique says Afghan forces will start taking security "primacy" in some provinces by early 2011. Attendees will include Afghan President Hamid Karzai, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and foreign ministers of Afghanistan''s other foreign partners. In preparation for the conference regional players including China, Russia, Iran and Tajikistan met on Tuesday in Istanbul to find a "single voice" in their approach to the conflict. Following are scenarios on what could be achieved. AFGHANISTAN SECURITY The draft communique says Afghanistan and foreign partners will agree to a "framework" for turning the country''s security over to Afghan forces, with the process to begin this year. The draft commits to "an agreement that transition will begin in 2010 and that a number of provinces may transition to Afghan security primacy, with ISAF moving to a supporting role within them, by early 2011," referring to the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force. It says Afghanistan will set up an organization to "reach out to insurgents," with the international community agreeing to pay for the reintegration programme. Karzai is expected to brief delegates on his plans to lure Taliban foot-soldiers from the conflict with cash, jobs and land, and trying to persuade insurgent leaders to sit down and talk about a peace settlement. Foreign donors will commit to channeling more of their aid through the Afghan government and providing debt relief to Kabul, although precise figures were left blank in the draft. |